XAUUSD — 30M Bearish Pullback Toward Demand

Market Pulse Gold is trading around 4,140 as the market waits for the September U.S. CPI report. The data is due today at 12:30 GMT and is expected to show headline CPI rising 0.6% MoM and 3.6% YoY, while core CPI is forecast around 0.2% MoM. Reuters The macro backdrop remains sensitive. Oil prices are rising again amid tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, while Fed officials continue to leave the door open to another rate hike later this year. Markets currently price around 22% odds of an October hike and 90% for December, keeping Gold vulnerable to a stronger inflation surprise. Reuters What the Chart Says On the 30M chart, Gold remains below the descending trendline after failing to reclaim the higher resistance structure. Price has also formed a bearish MSS, keeping short-term momentum tilted lower. The recent bounce has not yet changed the structure, and price is now pressing toward the lower demand areas. The first important zone is 4,124–4,129. Below that, the 4,108–4,113 area becomes the deeper support. Levels That Matter - 4,168 — Bearish OB - 4,156–4,161 — Major resistance - 4,138–4,140 — Current trendline area - 4,124–4,129 — Key demand - 4,108–4,113 — Deeper support My Main Plan My main scenario is a bearish continuation toward 4,124–4,129 while Gold remains below 4,156–4,161. If sellers break the key demand with strong momentum, the move could extend toward 4,108–4,113. I would then watch for a reaction from that deeper support rather than chasing the move lower. The CPI release could create a sharp move in either direction, so I prefer to wait for price reaction around the marked zones. If I’m Wrong A clean 30M reclaim above 4,161, followed by acceptance above 4,168, would weaken the bearish setup and suggest that buyers are attempting to retake the structure. Final View The short-term trend remains bearish while price stays under the descending trendline and 4,156–4,161 resistance. For now, 4,124–4,129 is the first area I want to watch, with 4,108–4,113 as deeper support. With CPI ahead, reaction matters more than prediction.