XAUUSD 4H — SMC + Price Action Disciple-fx NEXT WEEK

XAUUSD 4H — SMC + Price Action Current price: ~4429.8 Structure: Bullish, but price is approaching significant overhead supply. Market Bias BULLISH, while price holds the 4300–4320 structural support. The chart shows a strong bullish expansion from the 4300 area after the previous BOS, followed by a retracement and recovery. Key Levels Level Role 4690–4650 Major unmitigated supply 4620–4580 Supply / Fib zone 4500–4480 Buy-side liquidity / short-term target 4435–4415 Current FVG / reaction zone 4320–4300 Key bullish structure / BOS support 4120–4000 Major unmitigated demand Liquidity Zones Buy-side liquidity: Above 4480–4500, then 4580–4620. Sell-side liquidity: Below the recent 4300 swing low. The move down from supply appears to have collected sell-side liquidity before the current recovery. BOS / CHOCH / FVG / Order Blocks BOS: Bullish structural break above the prior ~4300 region. CHOCH: The reversal from the 4300 area signals a shift back toward bullish order flow. FVG: Around 4415–4435 — important for the current retracement. Order Block: The bullish reaction/base around 4300–4320 is the key demand/order-flow area. Supply OB: 4580–4620, with larger unmitigated supply around 4650–4690. Entry Setup — Preferred Long BUY zone: 4415–4435 Don't chase the candle. Prefer: Price holds/reclaims the 4415–4435 FVG. Lower-timeframe bullish CHOCH/BOS confirms. Enter on the retest. If price loses 4300 decisively, invalidate the bullish setup. Stop Loss: 4405–4415 ≈ 50–100 pips, assuming the common XAUUSD convention of 0.10 = 1 pip. Targets: TP1: 4480–4500 TP2: 4580–4620 TP3: 4650–4690 Risk : Reward From ~4425 entry with ~4415 SL: TP1 ≈ 1:5.5–7.5 TP2 ≈ 1:15+ TP3 ≈ 1:22+ These are chart-based theoretical R:R, not guaranteed fills. Trade Probability ~70% bullish continuation if 4415–4435 holds and 4300 remains protected. Probability drops substantially if there is a 4H close below 4300. Retail Trap The obvious retail trap is shorting the first rejection near 4480–4500 without waiting for structure confirmation. Price could sweep that buy-side liquidity and continue toward 4580–4620. Conversely, a sharp break below 4415 followed by an immediate reclaim could be a sell-side liquidity sweep and potential long trigger. 🎯 One-Sentence Trading Plan Buy the confirmed FVG/retest around 4415–4435, protect below 4405–4415, take partials at 4480–4500, then target 4580–4620 and 4650–4690 while 4300 remains intact. “If price stays above 4300, my bias remains bullish.” Educational/analytical view only — not financial advice; manage risk before taking any trade.